The cable does not last. At paid TV growth is slowed down

The cable does not last. At paid TV growth is slowed down
According to the forecast of J'son & Partners Consulting, growth of the market of paid television in Russia in 2014 will be slowed down – from 10% to 4% in number of subscribers and from 14% to 9% in terms of money


Growth of the market of paid television in Russia in 2014 will be slowed down – from 10% to 4% in number of subscribers and from 14% to 9% in terms of money, predicts J’son & Partners Consulting (J&P). Operators are not ready to continue only regional expansion yet, but also experience the amplifying competition from video services on the Internet.

Following the results of 2013 the subscriber base of paid television grew by 10%, to 35,1 million clients, that is 64% of all Russian households, counted in the research J&P. In terms of money the volume of this market increased by 14,2%, to 57,1 billion rubles. The cable television was the largest segment. On it 54,6% of all revenue, whereas were the share of satellite TV – 32%, and of IPTV – 13,3%. However IPTV showed the highest growth rates – for 47,2%. The segment of satellite TV grew by 18,5%, and cable – for only 0,02%, it is noted in research.

ARPU (the average account of one subscriber in a month) paid TV in 2013 made 136 rub. The National Satellite Company had the lowest monthly fee (NSK; brand "TV Tricolour"): the cost of an expanded package cost to users only 75 rub a month. NSK thus was the largest player of the market by number of subscribers from shares of 29%, "Rostelecom" (21%), MTS (7,4%), "AYR Telecom" (7,4%) and "Orion Express" (5%) followed further.

But following the results of 2014 growth of the market will considerably be slowed down. So, the subscriber base of paid TV will increase only by 4%, and market size – for 9%. In opinion J&P, operators of paid TV still will not be able to resume regional expansion because of complexity of receiving big long-term loans. Thus the competition from so-called nonlinear TV, that is viewing of video on the Internet will amplify. In fight for deduction of subscribers operators will continue to offer more and more additional services.

In the next five years the market of paid TV will grow on average for only 3% a year in terms of money, predicts J&P. Thus, in 2018 the market size will reach 75,9 billion rubles. The subscriber base of operators will grow by 17%, to 40,9 million households, and penetration will increase from 64% to 75%. Cable TV thus remains the largest segment of the market, but its share will decrease to 48%. The share of satellite TV remains at former level – 33%, and here IPTV will grow to 18%.

Data J&P differ from iKS-Consulting estimates presented earlier a little. According to the last company, the subscriber base of paid TV grew in 2013 by 11%, to 34,6 million people, and market size – for 16%, to 54 billion rubles. Included the same companies in the five of leaders in number of subscribers of iKS-Consulting, but estimated as well the income of the companies. In this case positions of leaders differed: on "Rostelecom" 21% of the market, fell on NSK – 13%, MTS – 11%, "AYR Telecom" – 9%, "NTV Plus" – 9%. This year analysts of agency predicted a gain of subscriber base of paid TV for 5%, to 36,2 million households, and market size in money – for 10%, to 59 billion rubles.

Shares of federal districts in the market of paid TV on subscriber base in 2013
FO Share, %
CENTRAL FEDERAL DISTRICT 35
VOLGA FEDERAL DISTRICT 19
NORTHWEST FEDERAL DISTRICT 13
SOUTHERN FEDERAL DISTRICT 9
SIBERIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT 9
URAL FEDERAL DISTRICT 8
FAR EAST FEDERAL DISTRICT 4
NORTH CAUCASUS FEDERAL DISTRICT 3


Source: J’son & Partners Consulting



Anna Balashova
Businessman
 No. 86 of 22.05.14